AFL finals series: The Saturday showdowns
The AFL finals series continues Saturday with the all-Sydney qualifying final and the elimination clash between Carlton and Brisbane. Michael Pike and Darcy McCartin rate their finals form.
SYDNEY SWANS
Michael Pike
Sydney have looked like the best team in the competition since the outset, despite a stumble in the twilight of the home and away season which saw them inexplicably drop points to a St. Kilda team who weren’t a factor in the finals hunt, as well as an 112-point drubbing from Port Adelaide away from home, John Longmire’s side got their mojo back at the very end, winning their last three games to solidify their position and secure the 10th minor premiership in the clubs history.
Their obvious strength lies in their lightening midfield, with Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden ranking 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively for average score involvements per game in the competition for players who’ve played a minimum 20 games. Gulden particularly provides great movement and ball-use from the wing, gaining an average of 566.65 metres per game.
Photo: Phil Hillyard, Sydney Swans Facebook
James Rowbottom will also continue to be an important cog in the Bloods machine, with his 7.62 tackles per game average having allowed for Warner and Heeney to run with speed through the middle on turnover, leading to an eventual 60 goals between the two at season’s end.
Their stoppage power will also be hard to deal with, ruckman Brodie Grundy averaging just under 32 hit outs a game and accumulating 16 goal assists across the year, 6 more than any other ruckman in the competition. All-Australian full-back Nick Blakey will be relied upon to mop up chaos in the Swans back half, having completed the most rebound-50s out of players at finals clubs this year with 135.
Meanwhile, their forwards will need to stand up big. Joel Amartey has been relatively quiet since his 9-goal haul against Adelaide, having only kicked 8 goals in the following 10 rounds.
Will Hayward’s solid end to the season will provide encouragement, as will veteran Luke Parker, whose new role as a half-forward saw him kick 8 goals in the last three rounds. Tom Papley’s hopeful imminent return could provide Swans with a final push towards glory in a year where everything has clicked into place at the Royal Hall of Industries.
Darcy McCartin
The Swans have been right up at the pointy end of the ladder for the entirety of the 2024 season. By far the dominant force in the first half of the year, being 13 wins from a possible 14 at round 15. Many would have thought at this stage the Swans would be a ‘shoe in’ for the premiership. However, as happens to most dominant teams, they were figured out. Sydney finished the season with 4-win 5 loss record, including a monumental 112-point defeat to Port Adelaide in round 21. Despite up and down form at the tail end of the home and away, they still sit right on top of the ladder, claiming the minor premiership and a SCG home final. Their side will be boosted by the return of gun small forward Tom Papley, who missed the last 5 games with an ankle injury. His energy combined with a star studded All-Australian midfield of Isaac Heeney, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner will be a lethal combination if they all get up and going together. They’re premiership favourites for good reason.
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY GIANTS
Michael Pike
An orange tsunami was forecast for September by many before the season began, and Adam Kingsley’s side have dealt with expectation, overcoming a mid-season stumble where they lost 4 in 5, to establish their brand of football as a real threat to the very best in the competition.
Two of their key outlets are All-Australian half-back Lachie Witfield and midfielder Tom Green, both in the top 5 for disposals per game this season, with the buildup from the back-half key as the Giants suffocate the opposition with accurate kicking and force their opponents to pressure them. Green particularly thrives in the contest, averaging the second most contested possessions per game in the competition with 14.04. His relationship with ruckman Kieran Briggs proving pivotal as well, with both contributing to 112 centre clearances between them across the year.
The Giants approach gives their forwards, most notably 2024 Coleman Medallist Jesse Hogan, space to move inside the forward-50, and the opportunity to take marks in favourable positions to set up great set-shot looks at goal. Jesse’s average of 4 marks inside-50 per game is 20% better than the next best in the competition, Jake Waterman of West Coast Eagles, and with 65.7% of his shots going through the middle sticks, he was also the third most accurate goalkicker in the 2024 home and away season.
Their small forwards, notably Brent Daniels and captain Toby Greene will be getting busy linking the defence to attack, with Daniels garnering an average of 18.09 disposals, the 2nd most in the competition for full-time smalls. Sam Taylor’s intercept abilities will play a big role, with his average of 8.56 per game the best in the competition in an injury-hit year.
Jack Buckley and Connor Idun will be relied upon for their cleanliness with the ball, with both ranked in the top 20 of the competition for disposal efficiency between defenders.
The method is clear for the Giants, it’s just whether the rest of the teams have enough to stop them in full flow, the week one fixture against Sydney at the SCG could very well reveal the premiers elect.
Darcy McCartin
The Giants when up and going are one of the most exciting and damaging teams in the competition.
Being labelled the ‘orange tsunami’ their fast-paced game style which coach Adam Kingsley has brought out in his squad on its day is unbeatable.
The rise of Jesse Hogan in year 2024 is incredible. Despite a sometimes-challenging career, he has hit the form of his life, winning the Coleman Medal with 69 goals for the season. Around him in one of the most damaging forward lines in the competition, captain Toby Greene and the greatly improved Brent Daniels.
If Hogan and Greene are on together, there are no defenders who can stop them. The top 2 disposal getters in the league, defender Lachie Whitfield and midfielder Tom Green also have the ability to change games, with Sam Taylor, perhaps one of the best key defenders locking it down at the back. The Giants are one to watch.
CARLTON
Michael Pike
Having been second at the end of Round 19, it wasn’t expected that Carlton would be relying on the result of the last game of the home and away season to know whether they would play finals or not.
A poor run of form to end the season, seeing them win only 2 of their last 8, combined with a horror run with injury left them hanging by a thread. Carlton lost on the day to St. Kilda but Port Adelaide beating Fremantle ensured that a trip to the GABBA awaits Michael Voss’ Blues.
With major forward presences in Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay to return, all is not lost for the Blues. With over 100 goals scored across the year between the two, as well as a status as the 8th and 9th best inside-50 markers in the league; if the two are operating even near their best it’ll prove to be a lot for Brisbane to deal with.
What won’t help the Blues scoring ability is the one-match ban for Matt Owies, with his 33 goals over double the amount of their next highest goal scorer after him.